Saturday, May 21, 2016

Pehle INDIA aur IRAN k beech ka Rishta Samaj le 
  • Delhi's relations with Tehran are multi-faceted and complex. The two countries share centuries-old cultural and linguistic links. In modern times, the relationship is more economic and strategic.
  • Tehran was the second biggest supplier of crude oil to India until 2011-12. Iran is also strategically located in the Gulf, and it offers an alternative trade route to Afghanistan and to Central Asia.
  • India is home to the world's second highest Shia population, next only to Iran. Iran's influence over an estimated 45 million Shias in India is regarded as significant. With Iran emerging after international sanctions, it offers great investment opportunities to Indian companies.
  • But the bilateral ties suffered setbacks following international sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear programme. As successive Indian governments moved closer to the US, their Iran policy took a back seat, much to the displeasure of the Iranians.
  • Iranians were dismayed when India voted against their country at a vote in the International Atomic Energy Agency in 2009. Then India significantly reduced oil imports from Tehran following US pressure.


According foreign policy analysts, PM Modi’s focus will be on the following issues;

Chabahar Port: 
  • This is one of the most crucial deals between India and Iran which has been pending for years, mainly due to the sanctions imposed on Iran and India’s lack of diplomatic courage. 
  • Now that the world powers have lifted the sanctions, the deal is back on the table. 
  • Chabahar port is where India wants two berthing docks, which will make trade with Iran easier and also give India access to Central Asia. 
  • It will also help India compete with Pakistan’s Gwadar port, which is fully operated by China. 
  • Earlier this month, India announced its commitment to develop the port, promising an investment of $ 20 billion to make Chabahar a deep sea port.

Farzad B gas project: 
  • The Farzad B block gas field was discovered by Indian explorers in 2012 and therefore, India was awarded the development of the gas field. 
  • India even promised to invest $1 billion in the project, but it was later stalled due to the US-pressure on New Delhi in view of the sanctions. 
  • This deal will is now expected to be signed by October and establish the ‘development, financial and commercial’ terms.

India-Iran sub-sea gas pipeline: 
  • New Delhi is also going to push for a sub-sea gas pipeline between India and Iran, via Oman. 
  • The pipeline will connect the Chabahar port to Oman which will then connect to India. 
  • This is a huge project, which analysts believe, might prove to be very expensive, but will also pay major dividends, “if the right economic and political regulations and mechanisms are in place.”

Building on the cordial ties: 
  • The two countries have shared cordial ties throughout the sanctions-era, barring a few exceptions. 
  • India can rectify its previous failure to show spine and build on the shared historical and cultural ties between the two countries. India is major importer of oil and natural gas. 
  • A partnership stands to benefit both the Asian countries. 
  • India is also an important stakeholder in peace and prosperity in the West Asian region, given the fact that more than 7 million Indian work in the Middle East. 
  • Therefore, the issue to region peace and security is just as important as the economic benefits that the two countries hope to reap through this visit.

 Payment issue !


Ok CHABAHAR port....many know it ...still for newbies !

  • India, Iran and Afghanistan are set to sign an agreement on developing Chabahar port and establishing a transit-transport corridor.
  • The establishment of a transit-transport corridor with Chabahar port in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province at its heart will allow Afghanistan to bypass Pakistan for trade with India. 
  • It will also allow India and Afghanistan to access new markets in the Central Asian republics.
  • The Indian company will undertake the development of two jetties in Chabahar port for a period of 10 years and will transfer all cargo consignments except for oil products. 
  • From Chahbahar port, the existing Iranian road network can link up to Zaranj in Afghanistan, about 883 km from the port. The Zaranj-Delaram road constructed by India in 2009 can give access to Afghanistan's garland highway, thereby establishing road access to four major cities -- Afghanistan--Herat, Kandahar, Kabul and Mazar-e-sharif.

Issues involved as far as moving forward with the CHABAHAR port is concerned ?

  • First, it is in competition with the bigger and richer Bandar Abbas. It is closer by geographic proximity to Afghanistan for India’s dream access to West Afghanistan and to Central Asia. However, the port is virtually undeveloped and needs a huge investment besides the fact that it has virtually no connectivity to the overland areas of India’s interest. For all its strategic importance, it will require a huge investment by India but money, for the moment, seems to have dried up, both in the private and public sector.
  • Iran itself does not have the immediate interest or the money to feel excited by any development prospects. It is learned that China is also playing spoil sport just as it is on a host of other issues such as India’s entry into the Nuclear Supplier’s Group. Iran will not be easy to negotiate with and it will extract its advantage from any such deal. The presence of Afghanistan as a part of this upcoming deal will throw up greater interest in international circles. It will be an initiative in favor of the Afghan Government and its quest for improvement of its economy and overall stability.
  • PM Modi’s inking of a deal on Chabahar will of course be a huge positive but the implementation is not going to be easy. Financially, the project which could be a game changer, requires a Public Private Partnership (PPP) and more consortiums to develop the infrastructure inland.
  • Iran may not be in a position to financially invest in this, notwithstanding the $100 billion which was frozen in the US banks and will be released in due course. Its other two ports Bandar Abbas and Bandar Khomeini are apparently sufficient for its current needs. Chabahar has some other constraints such as the ongoing low level insurgency initiated by the Baluchs who also inhabit the Sistan Baluchistan region of Iran. The Iranian Republican Guard has been deployed there for long.

Ok how can we exploit our CULTURAL TIES with IRAN ? ...u knw SOFT DIPLOMACY !!!

  • If there is anything in which a strong bond is evident it is the enduring Shia Islamic culture and faith in India. 
  • India’s Shias subscribe both to the Qum and Najaf schools of Islamic learning, the latter being in Iraq and the former in Iran. 
  • There is a great sense of pride in the Shia culture of Awadh with which Iran has historic ties. 
  • Hopefully, the PM’s delegation will factor this and have in it a representative of the Awadh Shias who epitomize like Iran a far greater level of tolerance in today’s radical Islamic world.
  • Prime Minister Modi will attend the inaugural session of the conference on May 23 which would be followed by a sitar concert. He will also release a manuscript called 'Kalileh wa Dimneh' - an old translation into Persian of Panchatantra and Jataka.The manuscript is perhaps the only ever-lasting and perpetual bridge which first connected Indo-Iranian community.


How is Modi bhai's kutniti different from that of Nawaz chacha and Xi Jingping mamu ?

  • Indian diplomacy revels in being friends with everybody. 
  • Contrary to the actions of the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, and the Pakistani prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, both of whom chose to visit Saudi Arabia and Iran on one trip, Modi has carefully elected to pay separate visits to both countries. 
  • It is possibly due to differing agendas, but more probably to emphasize that one relationship cannot—and should not—be impacted by the other.

Do you know the SADAT Moment ?

The ‘Sadat Moment’ alludes to the sudden change of heart that President Anwar Sadat had in 1978 which led to the Camp David peace process and ultimate rapprochement between Egypt and Israel; it altered equations for the better in the Middle East.

Can Modi provide the 'SADAT Moment' for Iran and Israel ?

No doubt India needs Israel !! -- 
  • India definitely needs Israel for the unencumbered and limitation free supply of crucial military hardware and technology for its military modernization program and other advancements.
On the other hand it just cannot IRAN too ..given it's strategic interests involved in West Afghanistan and entry in Central Asia  !

If India can promote a ‘Sadat Moment’ for Iran and Israel it can change the dynamics of the Middle East which will also help in the defeat of the Islamic State (Daesh).

For this Modiji will have to move an EXTRA MILE thinking beyond 'national interest' to act as a MEDIATOR. No doubt the relationship between Iran and Israel is dangerous but no effort at mediation has ever been made.

Modi's personal equations with Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu chacha are PERFECT ...he can leverage this best to calm down temperatures on the issue of PALESTINE ..which is root cause of TERRORISM around the world ..and can provide a long lasting stability to the WEST ASIA region. He can atleast urge Netanyahu to resume the peace process when he visits Israel later.


Is this all friends strategy right for India as far as West Asia is concerned ?

  • It is true that countries with a more proactive foreign policy in West Asia (the United States, Russia or France) cannot claim to have achieved much success so far. 
  • However, if friendship with all is obviously better than an absence of friendship or enmity, it is clearly not enough as it has hardly yielded any influence in the region. 
  • For India to be relevant and, above all, not be taken for granted by its many “friends”, it needs to be more than a friend for the countries in West Asia. 
  • It needs to become a partner of interest, with a unique selling point. 
  • For instance, it must present its partners a huge market, qualified expertise in many fields – chiefly high technology and a joint fight against terrorism.


Why is this visit important and not just a part of world tour as stupid people criticise ?
  • Mr. Modi’s visit assumes greater significance in the larger context of his own policy of enhanced engagement with West Asia. 
  • The Iran visit comes after his trips to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia and ahead of visits to Qatar and Israel. 
  • The government appears to be trying to reach out to the three poles of the region. 
  • While it will pursue good ties with the Sunni Gulf for energy supplies, Iran would act as a gateway to Central Asia besides enhancing India’s energy security. 
  • Israel remains one of India’s top defence and technology suppliers. 
  • The success of this policy depends on New Delhi’s capacity to do the balancing act. 
  • The Iran visit is an opportunity to restore equilibrium in India’s foreign policy, which, of late, was seen to be skewed towards Israel and Saudi Arabia.

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